The FINAL FOUR in NCAA Football - Who will make it?

[ranbethscards]

We are getting down to the final weeks of NCAA Football.

Any input on which four (4) teams will make the "Final Four" Playoffs?

The rankings as of 11/20/2014:

1. Alabama 9-1
2. Oregon 9-1
3. Florida State 10-0
4. Mississippi State 9-1

and outside looking in:

5. TCU 9-1
6. Ohio State 9-1
7. Baylor 8-1
8. Mississippi 8-2

.... and unless a miracle happens, those teams from 9 on down have no chance of making the playoffs.

NOTE: Auburn is sitting at number 14 with a 7-3 record... is it possible for them to move up far enough to make the playoffs with 3-loss record?

 

[CamaroDMD]

I think the final 4 (assuming all 4 win out...which I think they will):

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State

I think this is the "perfect" scenario for the committee to validate the playoff idea. The conference champion from the 4 power conferences that have a title game. That couldn't be more ideal for the committee as an organization to show that what they are doing is working.

I'd be very surprised to see Mississippi State (a non-conference champ and someone who lost to one of the other final 4 teams) and TCU (who doesn't have a title game) finish in the top 4 if those 4 teams win out.

 

[NorthKorea]

Auburn has no chance of making the playoff. Even if Bama and MissSt lose all their games for the rest of the season, and Ole Miss loses to Arkansas (but beats MissSt), Auburn can't win the SEC West. There's no chance a 9-3 school that doesn't play in (let alone win) it's conference title gets invited to the playoff.

When MissSt meets Ole Miss in the final week of the season, their records will likely be 10-1 and 9-2, respectively. Assuming Bama doesn't blow it against Auburn, they'll win the SEC West. However, should Bama lose and Ole Miss win, I think Ole Miss would represent the SEC West in the SEC title game.

If MissSt shows up for the game against Ole Miss and dominates both sides of the ball, it would be very tough to argue why they shouldn't be in the playoff, assuming Bama wins out and wins the SEC title.

Assuming UGA beats GATech, it's entirely possible that Florida will have gone their entire season without playing a single team in the top-20. Even if they're go undefeated and win the ACC, that should be a huge knock against them. A similar situation exists with Oregon, should Arizona lose one or both of its final two games this season. UCLA should beat USC this week, meaning Oregon would face UCLA for the PAC-12 title.

I would feel far more comfortable awarding a playoff spot to an 11-2 UCLA (should they win the PAC-12) than a 13-0 FSU. That's how much I think FSU's weak schedule matters.

If OSU wins the B10, they should earn a seat in the playoff.
If Bama wins the SEC, they should earn a seat in the playoff.
If OrSt wins the PAC-12, they should earn a seat in the playoff.
If UCLA wins the PAC-12, they should earn a seat in the playoff.

That said, here are the scenarios I think should happen:

If OrSt wins PAC-12:
1) SEC champ
2) PAC-12 champ
3) B10 champ
4) MissSt

If UCLA wins PAC-12:
1) SEC champ
2) B10 champ*
3) PAC-12 champ*
4) ACC champ

*Given the PAC-12 is hosting the playoff game, the ranking of 2/3 doesn't seem to matter.

Here's the likely outcome, regardless of if UCLA or OrSt wins the PAC-12:

1) SEC champ
2) PAC-12 champ
3) B10 champ
4) ACC champ

I don't like the "likely" outcome, since it rewards FSU for playing in a really crappy conference. What I don't even like about my first scenario is that I don't think it makes sense to make Bama and MissSt play a rematch, especially when humans are picking the four teams.

In this scenario, FSU will probably get blown out by Bama, thereby raising numerous questions of why FSU was allowed a spot in the playoff.

This is what I hope would happen:

1) Bama (SEC champ)
2) OSU (B10 champ)
3) MissSt
4) PAC-12 champ (UCLA or OrSt: it doesn't matter to me)

 

[ranbethscards]

... What I don't even like about my first scenario is that I don't think it makes sense to make Bama and MissSt play a rematch, especially when humans are picking the four teams.

This is what I hope would happen:

1) Bama (SEC champ)
2) OSU (B10 champ)
3) MissSt
4) PAC-12 champ (UCLA or OrSt: it doesn't matter to me)

First, I agree 100% that it does no good to have a rematch. Remember 2011? Alabama was defeated by LSU 9-6 (OT) on November 5, only to have the rematch on January 9, where Alabama won 21-0 and the National Championship. That was perhaps one of the worst "let the humans pick 'em" scenario ever.

Second, you really have to be careful when using "Conference Champions". Let's take the Big Ten... OSU is currently 9-1, let's say they run the gambit and, with two games left, end up being 11-1. Wisconsin is currently 8-2, and let's say they lose one of their last two games, making them 9-3. Now, let's throw a wrench into all of this and say they knock off OSU in the Big Ten Championship. Wisconsin, being the Big Ten Champions and using your formula, would get a spot in the Playoffs with a 3 loss record.

...and with the PAC-12, it is possible to have a 3 loss team win the Conference, so using your formula above, there could be TWO (2) 3 loss teams in the Playoffs.

...and then we will find out just how good FSU is... I mean... sure, they have the weakest schedule, but being last years Champions and possibly winning the Conference Championship, do they get a shot in the Playoffs?

 

[NorthKorea]

I don't think FSU is better than a 3 loss B10 or PAC12 champion. That's why I laid it out in that fashion. I don't expect OSU to lose to Wisconsin, since they barely beat Iowa today. I also don't expect a three-loss team to be in the PAC-12 Championship, since USC will lose to UCLA later today, leaving the PAC-12 Championship as a match-up between a one-loss Oregon and two-loss UCLA.

FSU just won 20-17 against BC, which was 6-4 going into the game. Strength of schedule matters when you barely win against unranked, ".500" in conference schools.

Arizona blowing out Utah pretty much solidifies Oregon's previously weak argument for being the #2 seed in the playoff.

Ole Miss getting destroyed by Arkansas might soften Alabama's #1 ranking, but not enough to move them. In fact, this weekend might be enough to push Alabama to #1 in the AP and coaches polls, regardless of FSU's undefeated season.

OSU's performance against Indiana probably does nothing for their rank, but with TCU not playing until Thanksgiving, it might be enough to push them into the top-five.

MissSt likely stays at #4 if they demolish Vandy tonight. If they don't, they could see themselves on the outside looking in, when Ole Miss is ranked ~19 after this weekend.

 

[CamaroDMD]

Arizona blowing out Utah pretty much solidifies Oregon's previously weak argument for being the #2 seed in the playoff.

I don't entirely understand how you can say that Oregon has a weak argument for being #2...but that's OK.

 

[NorthKorea]

I don't entirely understand how you can say that Oregon has a weak argument for being #2...but that's OK.

Well, prior to 'Zona blowing out Utah, the question would consistently be posed about how bad losing to 'Zona was for Oregon. Obviously, if 'Zona lost last week or this week, that would hurt Oregon, but with the Utah blowout this week, Oregon's loss to 'Zona doesn't hurt as much. When I say they were a weak #2, I'm not saying they shouldn't be in the playoff today, but rather that prior to the 'Zona-Utah game, it was arguable that FSU could be above Oregon. After this weekend, I think Oregon is solidly #2 in the nation.

 

[ranbethscards]

Florida State escapes with another win... against a "just over .500" team.

I will admit it... I DO NOT like FS, never have, never will... but bottom line they keep winning, so it's hard NOT to have them in the Final Four.

The BIG QUESTION for this week is... what will the NCAA do about Winston pushing the official away from standing between him and the FS Center? Everyone knows the rule... if the Offense does a substitution, they MUST allow the Defense to do the same. I have only heard TWO (2) people say that Winston DID NOT push the official... Winston and the Jimbo Fisher (Head Coach). The Commentators (doing the game) said it, the "Head Replay Official" said it, and all the late night and early morning Sports Media are saying it.

Should Winston be sat out this week? If he is, and FS loses, will that drop them from the Final Four?

I think right now, and in no particular order, it will be:

Alabama
Oregon
Florida State (although the Selection Committee doesn't seem to have love for them right now)

... and the fourth team is a big toss up. Ohio State won... again... but up until the fourth quarter was in a dog fight. They have Michigan this weekend, but at 5-6, the Wolverines' days as a power house are long gone and nobody will give Ohio State much credit if they blow Michigan out. If Michigan loses by a field goal that might destroy Ohio States chances of even an outside shot, and if Michigan wins... that opens the doors for a whole lot of teams.

 

[CamaroDMD]

Well, prior to 'Zona blowing out Utah, the question would consistently be posed about how bad losing to 'Zona was for Oregon. Obviously, if 'Zona lost last week or this week, that would hurt Oregon, but with the Utah blowout this week, Oregon's loss to 'Zona doesn't hurt as much. When I say they were a weak #2, I'm not saying they shouldn't be in the playoff today, but rather that prior to the 'Zona-Utah game, it was arguable that FSU could be above Oregon. After this weekend, I think Oregon is solidly #2 in the nation.

I see what you are saying...but on the other had, the Utah losing so badly makes Oregon's win over them less impressive too. So, I'm not sure which will weigh heavier.

Most analysts seems to not put a ton of stock in the Oregon loss to Arizona because of all the injuries Oregon had at the time. I think they have 1 of their starting offensive linemen in that game (and 2 non-scholarship linemen playing). As soon as the line got a little healthier Oregon was a different team. I think what is really helping Oregon is their total dominance of UCLA...who is a top 10 team. I know the final score is not a blowout...but Oregon pulled out their starters and stopped playing aggressively early which allowed UCLA a couple late scores.

 

[NorthKorea]

MissSt likely stays at #4 if they demolish Vandy tonight. If they don't, they could see themselves on the outside looking in, when Ole Miss is ranked ~19 after this weekend.

Woo hoo! If nothing else, at least I got the Ole Miss rank correct.

 

[CamaroDMD]

Woo hoo! If nothing else, at least I got the Ole Miss rank correct.

No kidding, they are falling fast.

 

[ranbethscards]

Holy crap... and to think just a few weeks ago everyone was saying how good Ole Miss was.

 

[CamaroDMD]

Holy crap... and to think just a few weeks ago everyone was saying how good Ole Miss was.

Their star WR got seriously injured and as a result their offense just isn't the same.

 

[NorthKorea]

FSU continues to squeak by unranked opponents this weekend, but GATech's victory over UGA could mean the undefeated Seminoles might face a top-10 opponent this season, after all.

MissSt likely falls out of the top-10 after losing to Ole Miss this weekend, probably placing Ole Miss ~13 and MissSt ~15. UGA also falls out of the top-10, likely ~12. UCLA's loss to Stanford will likely push them down to ~17, which means three top-10 teams will no longer be in the top-10 come Tuesday.

Tuesday probable Top-10:

1) Bama
2) Oregon
3) FSU
4) OSU
5*) TCU/Baylor
7) Zona
8) MichState
9) Wisc
10) GA Tech

Now, this assumes Auburn doesn't win the Iron Bowl and Oregon State doesn't win the Civil War, but I feel comfortable with the above.

ACC Championship: #3 FSU v #10 GA Tech
B10 Championship: #4 OSU v #9 Wisc
PAC12 Championship: #2 Oregon v #7 Zona
SEC Championship: #1 Bama v #13 Missouri

I don't like the Big-12. Baylor will likely be the Big-12 Champion if they beat KState, but TCU really does deserve to be ranked higher. Due to this unresolved discrepancy, OSU leapfrogs both of them into the top-4.

Based upon the match-ups in the respective championships, FSU will have earned the #3 slot with a victory against GA Tech.

What happens if the top-four don't win their conference championships?

FSU loses to GA Tech / OSU loses to Wisc / Bama loses to Missou:
TCU (who finished second in the Big-12) moves up to #4. I don't care if TCU lost to Baylor by a field goal. TCU "mercy-ruled" TexasTech (82-27).

Oregon loses to Zona:
Zona leapfrogs TCU/Baylor into #4. Ideally, I'd hope this wouldn't be the case, but, again, since TCU lost to Baylor by a field goal (as opposed to going undefeated), it's hard to argue B12 representation in the playoff.

OSU & Bama lose:

Winners shift up. TCU & Baylor #3 & #4.

FSU & OSU or Bama lose:
Winners shift up. TCU #3 & GA Tech #4.

FSU & Oregon lose:
Winners shift up. Zona #3 & TCU #4.

Three or more top-four teams lose:
Who cares? The playoff will suck.

Now, there will be those who grumble with 'Zona in the playoff, when TCU & Baylor each have only one loss. These will likely be the same people who consider FSU a top-five team or those TCU fans who feel TCU keeps getting scammed out of national titles. All I can say is... maybe TCU should try to not to lose to Baylor in the future.

 

[ranbethscards]

Bama, FSU and OSU all had games that they were quite lucky to pull out. Bama's and OSU's scores don't show how close the games really were.

...and FSU squeaks out a win, again, over an unranked team.

Now with that said... every year its the same thing.. you have great games when OSU and UofM meet, and you can't go wrong watching FSU/Florida.

...and with that being said, I think the top four will be:

Bama, FSU, Oregon... and it's a toss-up for the fourth team. Notice I did not "rank" the teams 1, 2 and 3. Why? I'm not to sure that the committee will keep Bama Number One after this game. Should FSU be Number One? NO... so that could open the door for Oregon.

And...are you ready for this... next week is Championship Weekend! All the Conference Championships are played... then the Committee picks the final four.

Let's say the Top Four lose their conference games... what then? do you move #6 through #8 up? Oh Oh.. that would put at least ONE 2-loss team in the playoffs.

I think waiting for the Selection Committees picks can be as exciting as some of the games!