The FINAL FOUR in NCAA Football - Who will make it?

[NorthKorea]

Let's say the Top Four lose their conference games... what then? do you move #6 through #8 up? Oh Oh.. that would put at least ONE 2-loss team in the playoffs.

If Oregon loses to Zona, again, Zona will be in the playoff. So, it won't require all four of the top-four to lose their conference championship for a 2-loss team to be in the playoff, just one: Oregon.

Also, I don't see the human committee moving Bama out of the #1 slot when the AP poll just released with Bama unseating FSU for #1.

 

[CamaroDMD]

If Oregon loses to Zona, again, Zona will be in the playoff. So, it won't require all four of the top-four to lose their conference championship for a 2-loss team to be in the playoff, just one: Oregon.

I don't know if I agree with that. Assuming the only change at the top is an Oregon loss. That would likely put Alabama, FSU, and TCU in the top 3. I'd think Ohio State (if they play well against Wisconsin) would get the #4 slot. I think losing JT Barrett hurts them...but I think if a spot opens up and they win the Big-10 they will be in.

Arizona has a lot of teams to climb over to get into the top 4. There is TCU, Ohio State, and Baylor in their way (and possibly Mississippi State depending on how far they fall). I don't know if beating Oregon will do that.

However, I do think Oregon will beat Arizona handily...so I doubt it's an issue.

 

[NorthKorea]

Arizona has a lot of teams to climb over to get into the top 4. There is TCU, Ohio State, and Baylor in their way (and possibly Mississippi State depending on how far they fall). I don't know if beating Oregon will do that.

However, I do think Oregon will beat Arizona handily...so I doubt it's an issue.

Here's the AP top-8 as of today:
Bama
FSU
Oregon
TCU
Baylor
OSU
MSU
Zona

If Zona were to beat Oregon, this is what likely happens:

Zona passes MSU on account of MSU not being in the B10 title game. Oregon falls out of the top-four on account of losing to Zona, again.
TCU/Baylor both get leap-frogged due to not having a conference title game. Also, it simplifies this for the committee to not be forced into the odd situation of inviting TCU to the playoff while leaving the B12 champion Baylor out.

Basically, I can't see a scenario where MSU gets into the playoff. If Wisconsin beats OSU, Wisconsin would move ahead of MSU. If Zona beats Oregon, Zona would move ahead of MSU. If GA Tech beats FSU, GA Tech would likely move ahead of MSU. If Missou beats Bama, TCU/Baylor would take the final spot.

 

[ranbethscards]

This weeks Top Four (12/2/2014):

Alabama
Oregon
TCU
Florida State

then...
Ohio State
Baylor
Arizona
Michigan State

If Ohio State whoops up on Wisconsin they MIGHT move up to fourth, IF FSU stumbles and, once again, barely pulls off a win.

Honestly, I think you see the final four just as they are... unless... oh crap.. here we go... what if Arizona beats Oregon again? Can the committee put a 2-loss 'Zona team in front of Ohio State?

 

[CamaroDMD]

However, I do think Oregon will beat Arizona handily...so I doubt it's an issue.

When I said they would win handily...I was thinking 17 points, not 40. Well, I think that locks up a spot for the Ducks as well as a few trophies for Mariota.

I think Marcus Mariota will sweep the MVP awards (Heisman, Maxwell, and Walter Camp) as well as bring home the O'Brien. But, we will see this week.

 

[ranbethscards]

I turned it off when it was 6-0. Guess I missed a very high scoring game. Both teams could have picked better uniforms for the game, but oh well, it wasn't a beauty pageant!

 

[CamaroDMD]

I turned it off when it was 6-0. Guess I missed a very high scoring game. Both teams could have picked better uniforms for the game, but oh well, it wasn't a beauty pageant!

Oregon turned it on in the second quarter and never looked back. It was 51-7 at the end and then on the last play Arizona scored against Oregon's third string defense. The only "real" TD Arizona scored was on a blown coverage by Oregon leaving a WR wide open. The first quarter was frustrating...but the rest of the game was completely one sided. Mariota threw 2 TDs and ran for 3.

I thought Oregon's uniforms were OK. Not their best, but certainly not their worse. My favorite combo is the older school colors...yellow helmet and pants with the lighter green jersey (of course, my favorites of all this year were their 1994 throwbacks against Washington).

 

[NorthKorea]

Kudos to Oregon's recruiting staff for offering Mariota a scholarship before he ever started in a high school football game. The 5+ yard dives into the end zone don't look that unusual to Hawaii residents, since Mariota was the also in the state's long-jump championships.

Well, I do hope he wins the Heisman, but I also don't want to hear about his win for the next 14 months. On the plus side, if he wins, I'll never have to hear another Manti Te'o commentary about being a Heisman finalist.

So, good luck to the Samoan boy from Hawaii.

 

[NorthKorea]

On a side note, it's a good thing the O'Brien fan vote only counts for 5%... it's an even better thing that Prescott is running away with the fan vote. If Boykin were winning the fan vote, I'd think he might beat out Mariota, but I can't see Mariota losing to Prescott. If he does, the award process is greatly flawed.

As for the Maxwell, I really think Gordon has earned it. If Wisconsin beats OSU tonight, and Gordon does it all on the ground, he should be in the conversation. If he pulls off the miracle and drops another 400 yard game, he should be handed the Maxwell on the single pretense of breaking Barry Sander's record.

 

[CamaroDMD]

On a side note, it's a good thing the O'Brien fan vote only counts for 5%... it's an even better thing that Prescott is running away with the fan vote. If Boykin were winning the fan vote, I'd think he might beat out Mariota, but I can't see Mariota losing to Prescott. If he does, the award process is greatly flawed.

As for the Maxwell, I really think Gordon has earned it. If Wisconsin beats OSU tonight, and Gordon does it all on the ground, he should be in the conversation. If he pulls off the miracle and drops another 400 yard game, he should be handed the Maxwell on the single pretense of breaking Barry Sander's record.

Campbell will win the Doak Walker Award without any question. I think this season all 3 MVP trophies will go the Mariota. It doesn't happen often (I think last time it was Cam Newton in 2010)...but I think it will this year.

I saw the online voting for the O'Brien Award. Up here...there has been absolutely no campaign to vote for Mariota for anything. He and his family didn't want one. I'm sure in MSU country there has been which explains the online voting.

Oregon wanted to do a huge Heisman campaign for him like the did for Joey Harrington and they said No.

 

[NorthKorea]

Right now, the playoff looks like it's going to be:

Bama
Oregon
TCU
OSU

I really hope the FSU-GATech game goes to OT. It would be ridiculous for the playoff committee to give a slot to FSU, in that case, even if they manage to eek out a win in the ACC title game.

 

[ranbethscards]

I think we all know it's a slam dunk for 'Bama and Oregon, but there might be a coin flip as far as TCU, Ohio State, Florida State and Baylor.

TCU and Baylor are co-Champions, however... head-to-head Baylor beat TCU, and beat #9 Kansas State in their final game, while TCU defeated a non-ranked Iowa State.... Go Horn Toads! Also, how can the committee vote in either TCU or Baylor without voting in the other one? They are co-Champions! You can't have one of those "glass is half full" scenarios.

Ohio State man-handled Wisconsin for the Big Ten Championship. 'nuff said!

...and, I am a HATER of Florida State (come on, their admittedly WEAK schedule all but assured them of a winning season), but their performance against #12 Georgia Tech, along with the fact that they have not loss a game in two years... you just can't argue with that. (okay, you can argue the "pick" that was called on the winning touchdown for Notre Dame kept the Florida State streak alive).

So, I think the Final Four will be:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State

Now... what does the committee have to say for themselves, when in a couple weeks, Jameis Winston is found GUILTY by the Florida State Student Council, and forces Florida State and the NCAA to slap Winston and the Florida State football program with sanctions and strips the team of wins and any Championship they won while Winston was their quarterback during the period in question?

Of course the Playoff Committee has been so wishy-washy this year that the playoff picture could end up looking more like:

1. Florida State
2. Oregon
3. Alabama
4. *** look out! if the committee selects Florida State as Number One, then that leaves the door open for TCU to remain Number Four or possibly Baylor to move up to Number Four, thereby shutting the door on Ohio State.

The human element... one of the reasons we have replay in the NFL.

 

[CamaroDMD]

Right now, the playoff looks like it's going to be:

Bama
Oregon
TCU
OSU

I really hope the FSU-GATech game goes to OT. It would be ridiculous for the playoff committee to give a slot to FSU, in that case, even if they manage to eek out a win in the ACC title game.

FSU will be in...guaranteed. The fourth slot will be TCU/Baylor/OSU. But Bama, Oregon, and FSU are an absolute lock. I'll bet OSU gets the #4.

 

[ranbethscards]

It's official...

#1 Alabama VS #4 Ohio State

#2 Oregon VS #3 Florida State

Baylor jumped over TCU to #5, with TCU dropping to #6 (see what happens when you convincingly win over a non-ranked team? Wait! Why is Florida State ranked third? If beating non-ranked teams means nothing, then... see my point?)

...and of course, the rest of the field means absolutely nothing.

 

[CamaroDMD]

...and of course, the rest of the field means absolutely nothing.

Not at all...remember, this actually involves the "New Years 6" Bowls. It's more than just the playoff. The At Large spots for those bowl games come from this field. I think all 6 will be good games. Here it is:

Sugar Bowl: #4 Ohio State vs. #1 Alabama
Rose Bowl: #3 Florida State vs. #2 Oregon
Cotton Bowl: #8 Michigan State vs. #5 Baylor
Peach Bowl: #9 Ole Miss vs. #6 TCU
Orange Bowl: #12 Georgia Tech vs. #7 Mississippi State
Fiesta Bowl: #20 Boise State vs. #10 Arizona

Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor, and Boise State automatically get their bids as conference champions (Boise being the highest ranked "mid-major" conference champ). The rest are all at large bids. I don't entirely understand why #12 Georgia Tech made it in over #11 Kansas State...but I do know that there are some conference tie rules that are specific to the Orange Bowl. My guess is that is why.